• Exploratory research project: PN-III-P4-PCE-2021-1350
  • Contracting authority: The Executive Unit for the Financing of Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation (UEFISCDI)
  • Contractor: Romanian Academy - Iași Branch (ARFI), Geographic Research Center
  • Project duration: June 2022 - December 2024

Project summary

The research project investigates the field of agricultural land evaluation in Romania in the context of recent climate change. The project applies the official Romanian land evaluation methodology, developed by Teaci (1980) and adopted by ICPA (1987), to assess the suitability of land for winter wheat, maize, sunflower, potato and grapevine at the scale of the entire country, using GIS techniques and spatial data as accurate as possible. In parallel, a recent methodology for assessing the ecological potential of viticulture proposed by Irimia et al. (2014) is used. These two methodologies are applied under the conditions of the reference climate (1961-1990), of the recent climate (1990-2019), and evolution forecasts for the next decades (2041-2060, 2061-2080) are also made under two possible scenarios of atmospheric carbon dioxide evolution (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). The results achieved by applying the ICPA methodology (1987) show that the model is well suited for assessing the suitability of winter wheat, maize, sunflower, and partially for vine, but rather fails in the case of potato, at least in terms of the validation methods used. The analysis of the evolution of suitability for the periods 1961-1990, 1991-2013 shows an increase for maize, sunflower, stagnation for winter wheat and a decrease for potato. The methodology for assessing the viticultural potential (Irimia et al., 2014) indicates a consistent trend of increasing suitability of climatic conditions for vines in Romania, attenuated, however, by relief and soil factors. From a methodological point of view, the project highlights a series of aspects that need to be updated / corrected at the level of the Romanian land evaluation system: the need to use recent climate data; the inclusion of data on average annual temperatures above 12oC and the determination of suitability coefficients for them; the use of spatial temperature and precipitation data interpolated by GIS techniques and not data from the nearest meteorological station, which cannot be representative for all the communes studied by OJSPA; the supplementation of climatic factors with other relevant variables (such as sunshine duration, relative humidity, drought indices) and their analysis within the vegetation period. Regarding the methodology for viticultural potential evaluation, the project identifies deficiencies at the level of soil factors and proposes a combination of the 2 approaches, in order to obtain theoretically superior results: maintaining the method of quantifying climatic and relief factors from the methodology proposed by irimia et al. (2014) and the integration of soil factors from the official Romanian land evaluation methodology (ICPA, 1987).